Today, the Advanced Biotech for Sustainability (AB4S) coalition—a cross-sector alliance including Arsenale Bioyards, Cradle, EIT Food, Evonik, Lallemand, L'Oréal, and BASF—published its second annual report: The Molecule Manifesto. Building on 2025’s assessment of a $1.1 trillion market opportunity by 2040, the 2026 roadmap shifts from theory to coordinated execution.
After screening more than 300 molecules, the coalition identified four priority families as the most compelling near-term candidates to unlock industrial scale: terpenes, peptides, non-catalytic proteins and hydroxy acids.
For the flavor, fragrance and beauty sectors, these families represent a transformative shift in ingredient sourcing and functional performance:
- Terpenes: Representing a $7–12 billion global market, terpenes like patchoulol, squalane, and nootkatone are already reaching commercial production. Biotechnology offers built-in stereocontrol and "natural-identical" labeling, decoupling supply from volatile botanical harvests and climate-vulnerable regions.
- Peptides: Targeting high-value cosmetics and food preservation, bioactive peptides offer multifunctionality, such as combining anti-aging properties with antimicrobial protection. The coalition highlights biotechnology as the only viable path for complex long-chain molecules (40–50+ amino acids) that conventional chemistry cannot synthesize efficiently.
- Non-catalytic proteins: This family represents the largest addressable market ($21–31 billion by 2030). Beyond copying nature, precision fermentation allows for design freedom to engineer structural proteins like collagen and silk for specific foaming, gelling, or bioactive properties without animal agriculture.
- Hydroxy acids: Unlike other families requiring purpose-built facilities, hydroxy acids like 3-HP (a precursor to acrylic acid) represent a brownfield opportunity, integrating directly into existing chemical infrastructure to replace petrochemical-based polymers and solvents.
The report emphasizes that infrastructure alone will not create markets; instead, demand validation must precede investment. The coalition calls for binding offtake agreements and co-development partnerships between CPG brands and technology developers to compress qualification timelines that currently stretch up to 36 months.
As Stef van Grieken, CEO of AB4S member Cradle, noted, "Leaders who embrace these insights can power new industries that will unlock impressive benefits across society."
With China rapidly expanding its biomanufacturing capacity—targeting scale-up across 43 companies by 2027—the report underscores that the window for coordinated action by Western industry is narrowing.
